为什么您的销售预测很烂（以及该怎么做）

销售预测对于每位销售人员来说都是重要的活动。然而，很少有组织对预测的准确性感到满意。尽管在任务上花费了大量时间和精力，但收入预测经常很烂。而且，高级领导层的压力似乎都无法改善问题。

So, what causes all these terrible forecasts? And, more importantly, what can you do toimprove forecasting结果？Vantage Point已经对预测进行了研究，并发现了两个基本问题。

您正在使用错误的预测框架

Many sales organizations use a forecasting framework that doesn’t reflect the way their salespeople sell.我们的研究shows 85% of B2B companies use a forecasting approach based on a pipeline of opportunities that are given an estimated deal size, slotted into a stage of the company’s sales process, assigned a likelihood of being won, and forecasted at a future close date.

搁置许多这种机会预测方法的执行问题，让我们专注于一个更根本的问题，该问题削弱了许多销售预测：除了这种经典管道预测方法外，您应该使用其他预测框架。

我们对62个全球销售组织的研究发现，有74％的人认为他们的预测应该基于某些东西其他比机会管道；但是，只有34％的同一公司使用替代方法。

如果您的预测基于与您的销售人员无关的模型，则很容易理解为什么您的预测很烂。你是developing forecasts使用没有反映现场实际发生的事情的数据和假设。

这就像试图阅读本文moving your eyes from right to left rather than left to right. Similarly, many companies try to shoehorn their forecasts into an opportunity-based model with stages and percentages when it just doesn’t make sense to do so. Unsurprisingly, these forecasts don’t make sense either.

进行收入预测的其他方法

至少有两种其他销售预测方法证明可以返回更好的结果：

• 帐户级别的预测：如果您有一个商业模式，则使用此功能，其中大量交易来自少数现有客户。
• Territory level forecasting:如果您的销售人员覆盖具有数十个甚至数百个帐户的地理位置，请使用此功能。

因此，如果您使用传统的，基于机会的预测模型并遭受不稳定的预测，请考虑是否应该使用其他方法来开发预测 - 更紧密地反映出预测销售团队的销售动议。否则，您将继续投入大量时间，这些活动将永远不会产生更好的结果。这比实际的预测还要糟糕。

你是Making Random Assumptions

第二期残缺的销售预测是随机假设。无论您的预测方法如何，您都需要根据一组假设进行一些数学，以及这些假设是重要的。

例如，如果您将预测基于机会，则必须承担交易规模，获胜的可能性和近日期。如果这些假设遥不可及，那么您的预测也将是。

令人惊讶的是，销售组织有大量的历史数据，可以为特定类型的机会提供最可能的交易规模，获胜率和销售周期长度。然而，销售人员可以插入他们的最佳猜测 - 正如他们乐观的眼睛所看的那样。

I once knew a salesperson who always claimed his outstanding proposals were 75% likely to close. When I asked whether he actually won 75% of his proposals, he responded, “No, probably more like 30%.”哦，那个预测怎么样？让我猜猜。

If you have historical data to help eliminate the randomness of the assumptions feeding your forecast, use it -- especially if you have a high volume of deals in your forecast.

The law of large numbers dictates the variations in individual deals will average themselves out to the most likely outcome. Sure, that $100,000 proposal might be 75% likely to close on December 31st -- but, probably not.

Tighten up that forecast

There are many factors that influence the accuracy of a sales forecast. If you’re basing yours on the wrong methodology and you’re populating that with faulty assumptions, you’re off to a bad start.

Adding a little rigor to your forecasts will go a long way in improving their value as a communication and planning tool. Everybody wants more accurate forecasts, and everybody spends a lot of time doing it. Some just do it better than others -- by design.